May 07, 2014
FL-13: Ed Jany Enters Race Ahead of David Jolly
Independent Ed Jany enters the race for Florida’s 13th Congressional District already ahead of Republican incumbent David Jolly, as shown by a recent DCCC IVR survey of likely general election voters. Jany’s strong crossover appeal among key voting blocs within the November electorate such as Independents, women, and seniors is durable enough to withstand the likely Republican arguments against him, including misleading attacks about his party affiliation and residency.
When asked which candidate voters are likely to support in the November general election, Jany leads Jolly by four points (48% to 44%), with just 8% of voters undecided. This vote follows balanced biographic statements about each candidate – including mention of Jany’s rank as a Marine Colonel and 30 years of service in the US Armed Forces, as well as Republicans’ counter argument that he resides outside the district and is only running for office because he was asked to do so by national Democrats.
Jany’s appeal is especially strong among key voting blocs within the likely November electorate. He leads Jolly by impressive margins among Independent voters (+36 points vs. Jolly), women (+12 points vs. Jolly), and older voters (+6 points vs. Jolly) – all groups with whom Jolly’s personal profile suffers following the special election earlier this year. As an added measure of strength, Jany outperforms the generic Democrat candidate, who is tied with a generic Republican candidate, by 7 points.
Jany’s early lead over Jolly just days after entering the race is a signal of just how competitive this district is likely to be through November President Obama carried this district in both 2008 and 2012, and Democrats finished within two points of Jolly in the special election earlier this year.
The IVR results noted in this memo are based on a survey of 487 likely general election voters conducted May 4-5, 2014 in Florida’s 13th Congressional District. Respondents’ information came from the voter file and respondents were interviewed over the phone via an automated (IVR) survey. The partisan composition of sample was 37% Democrat, 22% Independent, and 41% Republican. The margin of error for this survey is approximately 4.4%.
The findings of this IVR confirm the results of a similar survey conducted by Hamilton Campaigns for the DCCC.
Hamilton Campaigns conducted a poll in Florida’s 13th Congressional District, and tested positive and negative profiles of Republican David Jolly versus an Independent candidate with a biography similar to that of Ed Jany. After positive information, the Independent candidate leads Jolly by +20 percentage points after voters hear about both the Independent candidate’s 30-year military background and desire to work across party lines, and Jolly’s commitment to the people of Pinellas County and desire to repeal Obamacare and cut taxes. After hearing negative statements about both candidates, the Independent candidate remains in the lead by +5 percentage points. The negative statements focus on the Independent being from outside of Pinellas County and being supported by Democrats, and that Jolly will work to privatize Social Security and to overturn Roe vs. Wade.
These results are based on a survey of 400 registered voters who are likely to vote in the November 2014 election for Congress in Florida’s 13th Congressional District. Hamilton Campaigns conducted live telephone interviewing April 28 - 29, 2014. The margin of error for a sample of this size is ±4.9 percentage points, at the 95% confidence level.