Campaign 2010

Oct 15, 2013

BY THE NUMBERS: The Latest on the Republican Congress.

TO:      Interested Parties

FR:      DCCC Communications

RE:      BY THE NUMBERS: The Latest on the Republican Congress.

DT:      October 15, 2013

In the past two weeks, we’ve seen the latest polling go from bad to worse for House Republicans after they gave into the Tea Party demands to shut down the government over defunding the Affordable Care Act and giving insurance companies free rein over health care.

In the Congressional generic ballot, voters are making it clear that they want to elect Democrats to Congress in 2014.

  • Newly released polling by conservative pollster Rassmussen shows Democrats leading the generic Congressional ballot by 7 points (45 percent to 38 percent). That’s an increase from the tied ballot (40 percent to 40 percent) on October 6.
  • In the newest NBC/WSJ poll, Voters prefer Democrats in charge of Congress instead of Republicans by an 8 point margin (47 percent – 39 percent). Last month the lead was 3 points (46 percent -43 percent).
  • PPP released a new national generic Congressional ballot that shows Democrats leading by 5 points (46 percent to 41 percent). Independents have shifted towards Democrats by 21 points on the generic ballot since the July PPP poll.
  • The newest Quinnipiac University national poll shows Democrats taking the largest lead in the generic ballot so far this election cycle. Democrats have a 9-point lead in the Congressional generic ballot (43 percent to 34 percent).

The election is just over a year away, so there’s no doubt these numbers will change and fluctuate. Unfortunately for the Republican Congress, the damage their shutdown has inflicted on their brand and image with voters will stay in voters’ minds in the upcoming election and ones to come.

In the newest NBC/WSJ poll:

  • 70 percent of Americans – and 40 percent of Republicans – say Congressional Republicans are putting their own politics before the good of the country.
  • Only 24 percent have a favorable opinion of the GOP, and only 21 percent have a favorable opinion of the Tea Party. Both are “all-time lows in the history of the poll.”
  • Speaker Boehner’s net approval rating has hit an all-time low of negative 25 points (17% favorable to 42% unfavorable).

Gallup reported that the Republican Party’s favorability had hit a record low of 28 percent and has fallen 10 percentage points since September.  According to Gallup:“This is the lowest favorable rating measured for either party since Gallup began asking this question in 1992.”

As poll after poll shows that voters blame Republicans in Congress for the #GOPShutdown, there are plenty of vulnerable Republicans for voters to hold accountable in 2014.

  • The DCCC has already named 16 top tier candidates to our “Jumpstart” program, which provides early support for the most promising recruits. The NRCC has admitted that at least 20 of their members are potentially vulnerable, naming them to the NRCC’s incumbent protection program for 2014.
  • According to the Cook Political Report’s most updated PVI (Partisan Voting Index) scores for the House districts, there are 56 Republican-held seats in the competitive range from R+5 to D+5.
  • There are 18 Republican-held seats that President Obama won in 2012 and an additional 19 Republican-held seats where President Obama nearly won in 2012 (received greater than 48 percent).